Dissertation

Title: Strategic Uncertainty, Rent Distribution, and Coup Risk in Rentier States

Abstract: Conventional logic on regime stability typically argues that regimes secure loyalty by paying incentives through direct patronage networks. This dissertation proposes a contrasting logic: engineered uncertainty in those same distributive rules can, under certain conditions, be even more effective at deterring threats to the regime. When potential rivals cannot gauge who will be favored, how much is at stake, or when allocations will occur, the cost of challenging the regime rises, and the safest strategy becomes inaction. The study theorizes three complementary dimensions of strategic uncertainty in rent distribution (network, value, and distribution) and fuses them into a single index. The quantitative analysis covers a panel data of 53 rentier states, 1975–2021, to test whether higher strategic uncertainty leads to lower coup risk. Results show that the fog of uncertainty in rent-distribution can work as a standalone coup-proofing mechanism for rentier regimes, with the largest coup risk reduction observed when all three uncertainty dimensions operate together. Qualitatively, a paired comparison of Angola and Algeria traces how different mixes of uncertainty achieved similar risk reducing outcomes, while outlier examinations of Norway (fully institutionalized distribution) and Iran (single‑faction monopoly) clarify the limits of the argument.

Peer Reviewed Articles

• Mirzaei, Sina. 2025. “Ressentiment Politics and Identity Formation: A Critical Discourse Analysis of Azerbaijanis in Iran.” Social Identities 31 (3): 354–370. doi:10.1080/13504630.2025.2459070
• Giwa, Ayotunde, Jessica Ngakam, Sina Mirzaei, and Adediran Daniel Ikuomola. 2025. “Emerging Dependencies: GCC States and Sub-Saharan African Healthcare Labor Migration Through World Systems Analysis.” World Medical and Health Policy 17(4): 739-744. https://doi.org/10.1002/wmh3.70037.
• Mirzaei, Sina, Ayotunde Giwa, and Eyal Bar. 2025. “Missing from the Curriculum: A Content Analysis of Labor Politics in International Relations Textbooks.” Journal of Political Science Education.https://doi.org/10.1080/15512169.2025.2553335
• Moghimi, Leyla, and Sina Mirzaei. 2024. “Comparing Writing Outcomes in Online and In-Person EFL Instructions for Intermediate Male and Female Students.” International Journal of Practical and Pedagogical Issues in English Education 2 (1): 24–37.

If you are interested in any of my publications, feel free to email me at sm3853@nau.edu. I can share a copy of manuscript's a prepublication version.

Other publications

• Mirzaei, Sina, and Behzad Jeddi. 2023. Human Rights Reports of 2022 Jina Mahsa Amini Protests. AHRAZ Human Rights (Part of human rights data collection for the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission on Iran) http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21445.05609
• IPEK Research Center. 2025–2026. Socio-Political Attitudes Survey of Ethno-Linguistic Minorities in Iran (Principal Investigator: Sina Mirzaei; data collection underway, anticipated N ≈ 500).

To visit Sina Mirzaei's Google Scholar page, click the link below:

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Blj-rZsAAAAJ